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408 

WWUS20 KWNS 180816

SEL4

SPC WW 180816

CTZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-CWZ000-181300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 574

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

305 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT

  NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY

  SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND LONG ISLAND

  COASTAL WATERS



* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 305 AM UNTIL 800 AM EST.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT CONNECTICUT TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF

ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH

SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 573...



DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED...COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE NOW ENTERING

WRN NJ EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NYC AREA AND ADJACENT

PARTS OF LONG ISLAND/SRN CT AT 40-45 KTS. WITH CONVECTIVE BAND

LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING E IN TANDEM WITH STRONG DCVA IN EXIT

REGION OF 100 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX....AND WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER

LOW-LVL THETA-E AIR PRESENT OVER THE NJ CSTL PLN/LONG ISLAND...50 KT

NEAR-SFC FLOW MAY YIELD SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS DESPITE MOIST

ADIABATIC LOW-LVL PROFILES.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26045.





...CORFIDI

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