

043 

WWUS20 KWNS 201914

SEL4

SPC WW 201914

ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-LMZ000-210200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 504

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

215 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  NORTHERN ILLINOIS

  NORTHERN INDIANA

  SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN

  LAKE MICHIGAN



* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL

  900 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF

BURLINGTON IOWA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KALAMAZOO MICHIGAN.  FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 503...



DISCUSSION...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO GRADUALLY

INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH LATE AFTN. BULK OF

CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SITUATED

FROM THE MS RIVER EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND INTO

NORTHERN IND AND SOUTHWEST MI. SBCAPE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WAS

AROUND 2000 J/KG AND BOTH SHEAR AND LARGER SCALE FORCING ARE

EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORMS

AND A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

STORM MERGERS AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT SETTLING

INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY COULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE

STORMS...AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28025.





...CARBIN



720 

WWUS20 KWNS 201914

SEL4

SPC WW 201914

ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-LMZ000-210200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 504

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

215 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  NORTHERN ILLINOIS

  NORTHERN INDIANA

  SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN

  LAKE MICHIGAN



* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL

  900 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF

BURLINGTON IOWA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KALAMAZOO MICHIGAN.  FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 503...



DISCUSSION...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO GRADUALLY

INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH LATE AFTN. BULK OF

CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SITUATED

FROM THE MS RIVER EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND INTO

NORTHERN IND AND SOUTHWEST MI. SBCAPE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WAS

AROUND 2000 J/KG AND BOTH SHEAR AND LARGER SCALE FORCING ARE

EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORMS

AND A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

STORM MERGERS AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT SETTLING

INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY COULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE

STORMS...AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28025.





...CARBIN

