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WWUS20 KWNS 080154

SEL5

SPC WW 080154

ARZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-081100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

750 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS

       WESTERN ILLINOIS

       SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

       NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM UNTIL

500 AM CST.



...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...



DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT

SMITH ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES NORTH OF ALTON ILLINOIS.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...WW 2...WW 3...WW 4...



DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY

ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-44

CORRIDOR FROM NE OK INTO E CNTRL MO.  APPROACH OF OK/TX PANHANDLE

UPR VORT AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND ABSENCE OF STRONG

LOW LEVEL LINEAR FORCING...SHOULD MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR

DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS.  GIVEN INTENSE DEEP SHEAR OVER

REGION AND SLIGHT BACKING OF NEAR-SFC FLOW ALONG CONFLUENCE

LINE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG.

THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY ENE FROM NE OK AND SW/S

CNTRL MO THIS EVENING...AND REACH THE MO/IL BORDER AREA AFTER

MIDNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.





...CORFIDI

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