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WWUS20 KWNS 111323

SEL5

SPC WW 111323

AZZ000-NMZ000-112100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 915

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

625 AM MST SAT OCT 11 2008



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       MUCH OF EASTERN ARIZONA

       PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 625 AM UNTIL

200 PM MST.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

SIERRA VISTA ARIZONA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GALLUP NEW

MEXICO.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...INTENSE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER SRN INTERMOUNTAIN

REGION WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SPREADING NEWD

ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE

IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY WITH STRONG SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.

PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL BE

ENHANCED BY THE VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES IN PLACE.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 23040.





...HALES

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