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WWUS20 KWNS 072034

SEL5

SPC WW 072034

KSZ000-080400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 45

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

235 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CST.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

TOPEKA KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE

THIS AFTERNOON OVER SWRN KS AND DEVELOP/SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH

THE EVENING ALONG STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT.  AIR MASS IS ALREADY

MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND

WEAKENING CINH NEAR THE FRONT OVER SWRN/CENTRAL KS.  DEEP LAYER

SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO FAST

MOVING LINES/CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS.  SHOULD SUPERCELLS

PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-135/I-35...WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING

THE EVENING ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ.  SOUTHEAST/EASTERN PORTIONS OF

WW MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH AT A LATER TIME SHOULD

THIS THREAT MATERIALIZE.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24035.





...EVANS

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