

706 

WWUS20 KWNS 021720

SEL5

SPC WW 021720

ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-030000-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 225

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHERN ARKANSAS

       SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

       NORTHEAST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF SHERMAN

TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY ACROSS THE RED RIVER AREA OF SERN OK AND NERN TX...AS WELL

AS SRN AR AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED ROVER EAST INTO AR. THIS

DEVELOPMENT...COINCIDENT WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND DESTABILIZATION

OF VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR...SHOULD RESULT IN A CORRESPONDING

INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION. INCREASINGLY STRONG

KINEMATICS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE DEVELOPMENT

WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. LOW LEVEL

STORM RELATIVE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY

NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL

INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.





...CARBIN

