

309 

WWUS20 KWNS 251540

SEL5

SPC WW 251540

GAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-252300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 715

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1140 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       EASTERN GEORGIA

       SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

       EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL 700

PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH

CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 712...WW 713...WW 714...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA OWING TO: 1) EWD PROGRESSION

OF LONG-LIVED MCS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND 2) IN

SITU STORM FORMATION ALONG THE COAST WITHIN WARMING/MOISTENING AIR

MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  AREA VWPS SHOW THAT VERTICAL

SHEAR CURRENTLY IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.

HOWEVER...WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE

CNTRL APPALACHIANS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID AND HIGH-LEVEL

WIND FIELD SHOULD ACCORDINGLY STRENGTHEN.  AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT

SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM

MODES...INCLUDING BOWS/SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26030.





...MEAD

