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533 

WWUS20 KWNS 302235

SEL5

SPC WW 302235

MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-310600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 705

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

535 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

       FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA

       EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 535 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF

WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 75 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAINT CLOUD

MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703...



DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO

INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING IN VICINITY OF A SOUTHEASTWARD

MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN

VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER

WESTERLIES ALOFT...A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE ON

THE ORDER OF 2500-4500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED

MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS SPREAD

SOUTHEASTWARD/EVENTUALLY CONGEAL THROUGH THE EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 30020.





...GUYER/THOMPSON

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