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WWUS20 KWNS 290927

SEL5

SPC WW 290927

ARZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-291800-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 45

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

320 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS

       THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL

       WEST TENNESSEE



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 320 AM UNTIL NOON CST.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF

DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BATESVILLE

ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 43...WW 44...



DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS IN N CNTRL AR EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE EWD INTO MOISTENING LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT OVER NE AR/FAR SE

MO AND NW TN THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.  BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL

GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK

RELATIVE TO POINTS IMMEDIATELY NORTH.  WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB ALSO

WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CINH WITH SWD EXTENT IN AR/W

TN...POSSIBLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS.  BUT COMBINATION

OF VERY STRONG LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD...INCREASING LOW LVL

MOISTURE...AND LOW LVL CONFLUENCE SUGGEST CONTINUED CONDITIONAL RISK

FOR TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG...AND DMGG WIND WITH ANY SUSTAINED

STORMS.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.





...CORFIDI

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