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947 

WWUS20 KWNS 292213

SEL5

SPC WW 292213

KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-300400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 115

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

515 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHEAST KANSAS

       NORTHWEST MISSOURI

       SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA



EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF FALLS CITY

NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES WEST OF LEAVENWORTH KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE

DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE

(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY BY ABOUT 23Z

ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NE KS INTO SE

NEB...IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE CYCLONE AND UPSTREAM

MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE

RATES...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL

SUPPORT A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ALONG

A WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NE KS...WHERE

A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

SPREAD EWD INTO NW MO LATER THIS EVENING.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.





...THOMPSON

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