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699 

WWUS20 KWNS 180059

SEL5

SPC WW 180059

MNZ000-WIZ000-180700-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 405

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

755 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       EASTERN MINNESOTA

       WESTERN WISCONSIN



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM UNTIL

200 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST

SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CLOUD MINNESOTA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH

SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 404...



DISCUSSION...A WELL-FORECAST FORWARD-PROPAGATING SVR MCS WILL TRACK

GENERALLY EAST AT 40-50KT ACROSS CNTRL MN AND INTO PORTIONS OF WRN

WI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. INITIAL CELLULAR CONVECTION IS NOW SHOWING

SIGNS OF MERGING INTO A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS WRN MN AND

ERN SD. A FEW CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE BOW AND WILL

CONTINUE TO POSE SOME CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO

LARGE HAIL...WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 404. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...SYSTEM

WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO UPSCALE GROWTH AS BELT OF ENHANCED WLY FLOW

ALOFT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACT TO MAINTAIN BOTH MASS

TRANSPORT AND DEEP SHEAR...WHILE MESOSCALE LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION

ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE EDGE OF A STRONG GREAT PLAINS CAPPING

INVERSION.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28045.





...CARBIN

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