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WWUS20 KWNS 251043

SEL5

SPC WW 251043

CTZ000-DEZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-251800-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 425

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

640 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CONNECTICUT

       NORTHERN DELAWARE

       CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

       EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND LONG ISLAND

       SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 640 AM UNTIL 200

PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF

WINDSOR LOCKS CONNECTICUT TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC

CITY NEW JERSEY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 424...



DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH

THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AXIS OF VERY MOIST AIR IS TAPPED AND

DYNAMIC ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS

COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS CT/LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THERE

MAY BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS NYC AREA

GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. SOUTH OF NYC...ACROSS SERN PA AND NJ...SOME

DIURNAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE STRONGER

FORCING AND SHEAR ARRIVE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD

ALLOW FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING OVER THESE AREAS

WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND CELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH WIND AND

SEVERE HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27035.





...CARBIN

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