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WWUS20 KWNS 011804

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 445

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

205 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

       SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA

       SOUTH CAROLINA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL

1000 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST

OF SOUTHERN PINES NORTH CAROLINA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF AUGUSTA

GEORGIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 442...WW 443...WW 444...



DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE

NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN SC/NC.  THESE STORMS WILL

FORM IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 4000-6000

J/KG AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...THUS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE

WITH MANY OF THE STORMS.  LIKEWISE...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE

PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL FAVOR INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK

TO THE S OF NC...STORM/COLD POOL MERGERS COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO

THE FORMATION OF A CLUSTER OR TWO...WITH MORE SWD STORM PROPAGATION

POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 33025.





...THOMPSON

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