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056 

WWUS20 KWNS 142028

SEL5

SPC WW 142028

IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-150500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 485

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

125 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       IDAHO

       EASTERN OREGON

       SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL

1000 PM PDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST

OF BAKER OREGON TO 70 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LOWELL IDAHO.  FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

DEVELOP EAST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ORE/SERN WA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF

CNTRL ID THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS

DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER LOW/VORTICITY CENTER

BEGINS TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION. LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE

WILL ACT ON A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHILE A BAND OF 30-40KT

MID LEVEL FLOW PIVOTS AROUND THE EJECTING IMPULSE TO PROVIDE

SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE.

FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE MIGRATING NORTH WITHIN MONSOONAL

MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE WIND/HAIL

POTENTIAL ACROSS SERN ID THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 25025.





...CARBIN

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