

117 

WWUS20 KWNS 102142

SEL5

SPC WW 102142

KSZ000-NEZ000-110500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 675

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

335 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL KANSAS

       SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CST.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF

MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS

NEBRASKA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATE CONVECTION IS

DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB ACROSS CENTRAL

KS.  THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS MODESTLY MOIST WITH SURFACE

DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THE

ENVIRONMENT HAS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000

J/KG.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY

THROUGH THE EVENING AS WIND FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASE AND

DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.  A FEW SUPERCELLS

ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HRS BEFORE STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE

OR MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS.  DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE

PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE

ALTHOUGH LARGER T/TD SPREADS AND HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO

LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 23045.





...WEISS



078 

WWUS20 KWNS 102142

SEL5

SPC WW 102142

KSZ000-NEZ000-110500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 675

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

335 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL KANSAS

       SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CST.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF

MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS

NEBRASKA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATE CONVECTION IS

DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB ACROSS CENTRAL

KS.  THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS MODESTLY MOIST WITH SURFACE

DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THE

ENVIRONMENT HAS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000

J/KG.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY

THROUGH THE EVENING AS WIND FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASE AND

DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.  A FEW SUPERCELLS

ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HRS BEFORE STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE

OR MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS.  DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE

PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE

ALTHOUGH LARGER T/TD SPREADS AND HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO

LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 23045.





...WEISS

