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497 

WWUS20 KWNS 170103

SEL5

SPC WW 170103

ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-170600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

800 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  SOUTHERN ARKANSAS

  NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

  WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI



* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM

  UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

  A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

MONROE LOUISIANA TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF MONROE LOUISIANA.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO

WATCH NUMBER 164. WATCH NUMBER 164 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER

800 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 163...



DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS FORMED OVER S CNTRL AR

THIS EVE...INVOF A LOBE OF VORTICITY/ASCENT ROTATING AROUND SRN SIDE

OF NW AR UPR LOW. AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED

STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH 40-50 KT SSWLY 1-2 KM FLOW SAMPLED AT FORT

POLK AR. COUPLED WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE...MOIST ADIABATIC

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...SETUP MAY YIELD OCCASIONAL STORMS WITH A

RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND A TORNADO. WHILE THE STORMS SHOULD

MOVE MAINLY E TO ESELY...SET MAY YIELD PERIODIC EPISODES OF NEW

DEVELOPMENT ON THE UPSTREAM /W/ SIDE OF EXISTING ACTIVITY.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.





...CORFIDI

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