

480 

WWUS20 KWNS 081957

SEL5

SPC WW 081957

ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-090000-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

250 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

  SOUTHEAST KANSAS

  WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

  NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA



* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM

  UNTIL 700 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS

    TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS

    TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF

KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...



DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS NOW OVER NE OK/S CNTRL KS FORMED IN

ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE...NE-MOVING UPR IMPULSE. THE STORMS

SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS

THE UPR FEATURE CONTINUES NEWD AND STORM COLD POOLS ENLARGE/MERGE.

19Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE WELL-SAMPLED THE DOWNSTREAM

ENVIRONMENT...WHERE ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE

LOW-LVL BUOYANCY. 40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED

STORMS/SUPERCELLS. VEERED LOW-LVL WINDS AND EXPECTED FAIRLY

SUBSTANTIAL STORM OUTFLOW SUGGEST THAT BROKEN LINES/CLUSTERS WITH

EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE...WITH AN

ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HIGH WIND...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A

TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE BY EARLY EVE GIVEN

EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF LLJ /REF SWODY1/. THIS MAY REQUIRE THAT

PARTS OF THE WW BE UPGRADED TO TORNADO BEFORE THAT TIME.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24035.





...CORFIDI



015 

WWUS20 KWNS 081957

SEL5

SPC WW 081957

ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-090000-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

250 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

  SOUTHEAST KANSAS

  WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

  NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA



* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM

  UNTIL 700 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS

    TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS

    TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF

KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...



DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS NOW OVER NE OK/S CNTRL KS FORMED IN

ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE...NE-MOVING UPR IMPULSE. THE STORMS

SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS

THE UPR FEATURE CONTINUES NEWD AND STORM COLD POOLS ENLARGE/MERGE.

19Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE WELL-SAMPLED THE DOWNSTREAM

ENVIRONMENT...WHERE ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE

LOW-LVL BUOYANCY. 40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED

STORMS/SUPERCELLS. VEERED LOW-LVL WINDS AND EXPECTED FAIRLY

SUBSTANTIAL STORM OUTFLOW SUGGEST THAT BROKEN LINES/CLUSTERS WITH

EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE...WITH AN

ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HIGH WIND...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A

TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE BY EARLY EVE GIVEN

EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF LLJ /REF SWODY1/. THIS MAY REQUIRE THAT

PARTS OF THE WW BE UPGRADED TO TORNADO BEFORE THAT TIME.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24035.





...CORFIDI

