

000 

WWUS20 KWNS 181748

SEL6

SPC WW 181748

MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-190100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 416

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1245 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN

       SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA

       CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN

       LAKE MICHIGAN

       LAKE SUPERIOR



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL

800 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN TO 65 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MARQUETTE

MICHIGAN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS MUCH OF

NRN/CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LEADING EDGE OF VERY STRONG

WSWLY FLOW ALOFT.  HEATING SHOULD BE SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF

MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WW THROUGH THE DAY...AND RESULT IN

STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BECOME

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES

AND MOVE ENEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL

MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24035.





...EVANS

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