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145 

WWUS20 KWNS 011837

SEL6

SPC WW 011837

MIZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-020100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 786

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

240 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

       LAKE ERIE

       LAKE HURON

       LAKE MICHIGAN



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 900

PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF

DETROIT MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MANISTEE MICHIGAN.

 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 785...



DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE

UPPER PENINSULA...CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD AND AID IN LARGE SCALE

ASCENT. INCREASING INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING WILL LEND SUPPORT

TO AN INCREASING PROBABILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH SEVERE

LEVELS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING

WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY

SPREADING/DEVELOPING EWD/SEWD WITH TIME.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 33030.





...CARBIN

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