

000 

WWUS20 KWNS 162138

SEL6

SPC WW 162138

AZZ000-170400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 836

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

240 PM MST SAT AUG 16 2008



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL

900 PM MST.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES NORTHEAST

OF SHOW LOW ARIZONA TO 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF PRESCOTT ARIZONA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS NRN AZ IN THE SWRN QUAD

OF UPPER LOW OVER CO.  WITH A RATHER MOIST LOW LEVEL SWLY

FLOW...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN

NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP

SEWD ACROSS THE WATCH.  WITH 30-35 KT OF SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE

POSSIBLE WITH AN ENHANCED LARGE HAIL AND WINDS DAMAGE POTENTIAL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 30020.





...HALES

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