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517 

WWUS20 KWNS 111904

SEL6

SPC WW 111904

COZ000-NMZ000-120200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 916

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

105 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       PARTS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO

       LARGE PART OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL

800 PM MDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF

TRINIDAD COLORADO TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO NEW MEXICO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 915...



DISCUSSION...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS NM

AHEAD OF THE VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND WIND MAX.  WITH 50-60KT OF

SHEAR ALONG WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL

INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EWD THRU THE AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING

WINDS ENHANCED  BY THE STRONG GRADIENT AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE MAIN

THREATS...HOWEVER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS

DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO

BE MONITORED AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24035.





...HALES

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