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203 

WWUS20 KWNS 190822

SEL6

SPC WW 190822

INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-191600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 476

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

415 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA

       SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

       WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO

       LAKE ERIE



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 415 AM UNTIL NOON EDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

DAYTON OHIO.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...WW 472...WW

473...WW 474...WW 475...



DISCUSSION...FORWARD-PROPAGATING/BOW MCS NOW CROSSING SW LWR MI/NW

IND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE JUST S OF E AT ABOUT 30-35 KTS.  SYSTEM MAY

ACCELERATE A BIT AS IT INGESTS WARM FRONTAL STORMS FORMING OVER NE

IND/NW OH.  WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER E OF THESE STORMS REMAINS

RELATIVELY STABLE...AREA VWPS SHOW 30-40 KT WLY LLJ ACROSS IL/IND

THAT WILL DESTABILIZE LAYER JUST OFF THE SFC AND MAY SUPPORT A SVR

RISK EWD INTO CNTRL OH TOWARD MID MORNING.  A LOW PROBABILITY RISK

WILL EXIST FOR A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS ALONG

WARM FRONT...BUT THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT

A TORNADO WATCH.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28035.





...CORFIDI

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