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448 

WWUS20 KWNS 281503

SEL6

SPC WW 281503

CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-282200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 686

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       WESTERN CONNECTICUT

       WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

       NEW JERSEY

       SOUTHEAST NEW YORK

       EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 600

PM EDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF

PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC

CITY NEW JERSEY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY

INCREASING ALONG A BAND FROM CENTRAL NY INTO EASTERN PA.  THIS

ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

 INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK...AND CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR BEEN TOO

SHALLOW TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER

VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG AND THE RISK EXISTS FOR ISOLATED

SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOW ECHOES.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE CONFIRMED

THAT RISK.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED

TORNADO IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.





...HART

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