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414 

WWUS20 KWNS 162054

SEL6

SPC WW 162054

KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-170300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 486

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

355 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHWEST KANSAS

       WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

       THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE



EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON

OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483...WW 484...WW 485...



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE

BY ROUGHLY 22Z FROM SW KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE STRONG

SURFACE HEATING AND AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX HAVE

CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING THE CAP.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEEP

BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PRESENT E OF THE DRYLINE WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS

SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE

ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE

DRYLINE IN SW KS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26020.





...THOMPSON

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