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867 

WWUS20 KWNS 291929

SEL6

SPC WW 291929

NCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-300300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 816

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

330 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

       FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL

1100 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO 25 MILES EAST

SOUTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE

DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE

(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF SURFACE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO

INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL

TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS.  OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL

DATA INDICATE THAT MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT OF 30-40

KT SWLY WINDS AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR

FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES.  WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL

BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS

THAT FORM.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26025.





...MEAD

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