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ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-260300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 16

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

210 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

       LOUISIANA

       WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

       FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL

900 PM CST.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MONROE

LOUISIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO

WATCH NUMBER 15. WATCH NUMBER 15 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 210

PM CST.



DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED QLCS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP AND SUPERCELL

STRUCTURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER THIS

AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  18Z LCH SOUNDING AND CURRENT VAD DATA FROM

FT. POLK LA INDICATE A FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT WITH

MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1

KM SRH OF AROUND 300 M2/S2.  WHILE THE DOMINANT LINEAR CONVECTIVE

MODE WILL LIMIT A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT...A FEW TORNADOES WILL

REMAIN POSSIBLE.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH

SOME SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.





...MEAD

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