

178 

WWUS20 KWNS 040059

SEL6

SPC WW 040059

OKZ000-TXZ000-040800-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 26

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

700 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

       NORTHEAST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM

UNTIL 200 AM CST.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF

DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DALLAS TEXAS.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 25...



DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS FROM DUA TO MWL HAS RECENTLY

INTENSIFIED LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH

THE ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT FROM THE NW/W.  00Z FWD SOUNDING IS

REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING A RATHER DEEP

LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE OF

1000-1500 J/KG.  KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR

UPDRAFT ROTATION GIVEN 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND A BRIEF

TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE LINE INTERACTS WITH WARM

FRONT PRESENT ACROSS SERN OK.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PREDOMINANT

LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND TENDENCY FOR THE LLJ TO WEAKEN THROUGH

04/06Z ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...EXPECT SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 25025.





...MEAD

