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WWUS20 KWNS 292233

SEL6

SPC WW 292233

KSZ000-OKZ000-300300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 116

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

535 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

       NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF TOPEKA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE

OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 115...



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN

COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE IN NW OK...AND AS THE

DRYLINE IS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS.  MODERATE

INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARIES...WHERE STRONG

SURFACE HEATING AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ARE WEAKENING

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER

MARGINS FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS /PRIMARILY IN KS/...BUT THE

MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE

HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SEVERE

THREAT SHOULD PEAK BY LATE EVENING...AND THEN DECREASE BY 02-03Z AS

THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND THE CAP AGAIN STRENGTHENS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27020.





...THOMPSON

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