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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 476

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

640 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

       NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM

UNTIL 200 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF

RHINELANDER WISCONSIN TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MANKATO

MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 474...WW 475...



DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR ALONG

WSW-ENE COLD FRONT.  SFC WIND/PRES FIELDS N OF BOUNDARY SUGGEST THE

FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY SWD AT 10-15 KTS.  NEAR-SFC WINDS

AHEAD OF FRONT LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK.  THE 00Z/JULY 7 RAOB FROM

MPX HAS BEEN DELAYED /A NEW LAUNCH ATTEMPT IS ON-GOING ATTM/.  BUT

AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL REGION LIKELY IS CHARACTERIZED

BY VERY STRONG BUOYANCY/DEEP EML ATOP A SHALLOW LOW LVL INVERSION.

COUPLED WITH RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND 30-35 KT

WSWLY...UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS

AND POSSIBLE SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WEAKNESS OF LOW LVL FLOW AND

ABSENCE OF LOW LVL BACKING SHOULD KEEP ANY SUCH THREAT

ISOLD/DEPENDENT UPON STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27025.





...CORFIDI

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