

389 

WWUS20 KWNS 250211

SEL6

SPC WW 250211

MNZ000-NDZ000-250900-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 516

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

910 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA

       EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 910 PM

UNTIL 400 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST

SOUTHWEST OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

BRAINERD MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 514...WW 515...



DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SE JMS...TO THE

N OF SURFACE FRONT...LIKELY BEING FORCED BY INCREASING

WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL

LOW-LEVEL JET.  BASED ON 00Z ABR SOUNDING...AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS

CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF 3000-3500

J/KG.  WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR...SETUP

WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS

LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28020.





...MEAD

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