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000 

WWUS20 KWNS 170650

SEL7

SPC WW 170650

KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-171400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 707

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

145 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS

       CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA

       CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 145 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHWEST OF ELKHART KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

RUSSELL KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 705. WATCH NUMBER 705 WILL NOT

BE IN EFFECT AFTER 145 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 706...



DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL FCST TO INCREASE AS ELEVATED

INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM S-N ACROSS WW AREA.  35-45

KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES FCST TO DEVELOP...SUGGESTING

ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED

SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY CONCERN.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 23035.





...EDWARDS/CORFIDI

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