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000 

WWUS20 KWNS 231127

SEL7

SPC WW 231127

FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-231900-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 857

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

720 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN FLORIDA

       SOUTHERN GEORGIA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 720 AM UNTIL

300 PM EDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

MOULTRIE GEORGIA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN STRENGTH IN THE PAST

90 MINS OR SO ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF VLD SSE

TO NEAR TPA.  THIS MAY REFLECT INCREASED ASCENT ALONG THE CONFLUENCE

ZONE...AND/OR INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE OFF THE FAR ERN GULF AS T.S.

FAY CONTINUES TO EDGE WWD.  LOW LVL SHEAR DECREASES FROM N TO S

ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE...BUT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOW

LVL ROTATION WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AS FAR S AS CITRUS AND

HERNANDO COUNTIES IN FL.  GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONSET

OF MODEST SFC HEATING...SETUP MAY SUPPORT ISOLD TORNADOES.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 17035.





...CORFIDI

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