

736 

WWUS20 KWNS 041914

SEL7

SPC WW 041914

ARZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-050100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 547

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

210 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

       SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

       WESTERN KENTUCKY

       SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

       NORTHWEST TENNESSEE



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL

800 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF

POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...WW 546...



DISCUSSION...WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF

SURFACE LOW ACROSS NRN MO AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OUTFLOW MOVING

EAST ACROSS NRN AR. MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO AID

TSTM UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION AS LARGE SCALE LIFT/ASCENT IS

MAINTAINED AHEAD OF SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT WILL LIKELY

CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL

AND LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH

ROTATING STORMS ON OR CROSSING THE WARM FRONT INVOF MS/OH RIVER

CONFLUENCE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN

SCOPE TO SUPPORT TORNADO WATCH BUT STORMS DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO

THIS AREA SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR STRONGER LOW LEVEL

ROTATION.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26030.





...CARBIN

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