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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 287

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

225 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

       EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

       WEST TEXAS TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL

1000 PM MDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF

CLAYTON NEW MEXICO TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST

AND CENTRAL NM ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD/SEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND

MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE

DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND MUCAPE TO 2500 J/KG/.  WIND PROFILES

EXHIBIT STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WITH LIGHT SELY LOW

LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO 20-30 KT NWLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS.  THIS

WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING

A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WIND GUSTS.  ACTIVITY MOVE GROW UPSCALE INTO A SMALL MCS BY THIS

EVENING THAT MAY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS

ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO PARTS OF WEST TX.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29025.





...WEISS

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