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WWUS20 KWNS 292058

SEL7

SPC WW 292058

KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 317

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

355 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

       WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

       A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF

MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE

OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 313...WW 314...WW

315...WW 316...



DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU FIELD DEVELOPING FROM SWRN

KS INTO NWRN OK...AND WITH CAP CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...DEEP

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS

PARTS OF SWRN KS AND WRN OK.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WARM SURFACE

TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER OK ARE CONTRIBUTING TO

VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG.  VEERING

WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RESULTANT STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL

PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT

WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

 STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEWD MOVING MCS LATER THIS EVENING

WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29025.





...WEISS

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