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298 

WWUS20 KWNS 221744

SEL7

SPC WW 221744

CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-230100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 417

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

145 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CONNECTICUT

       WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

       CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

       SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND LONG ISLAND

       SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 900

PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF PITTSFIELD

MASSACHUSETTS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF

SFC COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PA ARE EXPECTED TO OFFER PRIMARY RISK OF

DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.  ACTIVITY

WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY

LAYERS...MUCAPE UP TO AROUND 2500 J/KG AND 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR

MAGNITUDES...IN SUPPORT OF PRIMARY MULTICELLULAR MODE.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26030.





...EDWARDS

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