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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 657

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

545 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA

       FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

       SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN LOUISIANA

       SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 545 PM

UNTIL 200 AM CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE

ALABAMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO

WATCH NUMBER 656. WATCH NUMBER 656 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER

545 PM CDT.



DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING THROUGH LATE

TNGT/EARLY MON ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE LINE MOVING SLOWLY EWD IN SE

QUADRANT OF SFC LOW NOW NEAR NATCHEZ MS. AREA VWP DATA /ESPECIALLY

AT MOB/ SUGGEST THAT BAND OF 35-40 KT SSWLY 700 MB WINDS THAT HAS

BEEN FCST TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION THIS EVE

ALREADY IS IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. AS THE SPEED MAX CONTINUES

NEWD...ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LVL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT OF OCCASIONAL LOW-LVL MESOS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN

SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WW GIVEN RICH MOISTURE OVER REGION AND

LIKELIHOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW UPDRAFTS IN MODERATE...SSELY

NEAR-SFC FLOW AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE LINE.



ELSEWHERE...MORE WDLY SCTD STORMS MAY FORM CLOSER TO SFC LOW AND

ALONG ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM LOW DURING THE NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS.  IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN THIS REGION...A

CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR LOW-LVL

MESOS/TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH OVERALL THREAT HERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE

AS GREAT AS THAT IN THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025.





...CORFIDI

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