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685 

WWUS20 KWNS 071848

SEL7

SPC WW 071848

NYZ000-PAZ000-LEZ000-LOZ000-080200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 397

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

245 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  WESTERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK

  WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA

  LAKE ERIE

  LAKE ONTARIO



* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL

  1000 PM EDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF

FRANKLIN PENNSYLVANIA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY NEW

YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN

AS TSTMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...AMIDST DESTABILIZING

BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKENING MLCINH.  AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MORE

FAVORABLE UNSTABLE FROM W-E AND S-N ACROSS WW AREA BEHIND MORNING

CONVECTION...WITH AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.  REF SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294 FOR MORE NEAR-TERM DETAILS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26530.





...EDWARDS

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