

000 

WWUS20 KWNS 021001

SEL8

SPC WW 021001

ARZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-021500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 248

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

500 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS

       EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

       SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 500 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 25 MILES WEST OF HOT SPRINGS

ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 246...WW 247...



DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD IN ADVANCE OF A

SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS AR/MO THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL

TENDENCY TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING.  INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL

SHEAR REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING

WINDS...AND THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

HAIL.  AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE

STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH LINGERING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND

THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26035.





...THOMPSON

