

350 

WWUS20 KWNS 020055

SEL8

SPC WW 020055

ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-020800-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 738

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

750 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

       NORTHWEST LOUISIANA

       EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM UNTIL

300 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF

TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ANGLETON TEXAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY

THROUGH EARLY TUE OVER PARTS OF ERN/SE TX AND WRN LA AS LOW LVL

WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING W TX UPR

TROUGH.  WEAK MID LVL FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BACK.

COUPLED WITH EXISTING LOW LVL FORCING MECHANISMS /MAINLY THE SSW-NNE

BOUNDARY FROM W OF KHGX TO NEAR KSHV/...SETUP SHOULD FAVOR BROKEN

LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL

SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.  LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW

LVL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR MCS OUTFLOW BNDRY IN THE KHGX/KGLS

AREA...AND RICH MOISTURE...SUGGEST A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT ACROSS

THAT REGION.  THIS THREAT...HOWEVER...APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A

SEPARATE TORNADO WATCH ATTM.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 21025.





...CORFIDI

