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WWUS20 KWNS 050054

SEL8

SPC WW 050054

ARZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050800-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 38

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

650 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS

       SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

       SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM

UNTIL 200 AM CST.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST

NORTHEAST OF ALTON ILLINOIS TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT

SMITH ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 36...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 37.

WATCH NUMBER 36 37 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 650 PM CST.



DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND...WITH

TIME...BEHIND SW-NE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SE INTO WRN EDGE OF WW AS

SRN PLNS UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES ENEWD.  COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY

STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH 40 KT SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY

DMGG WIND THROUGH LATE EVE...MAINLY FROM THE AR/OK BORDER AREA ENE

INTO SRN MO.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24035.





...CORFIDI

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