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930 

WWUS20 KWNS 181956

SEL8

SPC WW 181956

OHZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-LEZ000-190200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 658

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

355 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO

       NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA

       THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

       LAKE ERIE



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL

1000 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF

YOUNGSTOWN OHIO TO 35 MILES WEST OF MANSFIELD OHIO.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 657...



DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE

ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA ON THE NE EDGE OF THE RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG

INSTABILITY PLUME FEEDING IN FROM THE W.  ADDITIONALLY...A CLUSTER

OF STORMS IN SE LOWER MI COULD PERSIST AND MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE

LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING

DOWNBURSTS WITH THE ISOLATED STORMS...AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE MORE

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS N/NE OH IF THE SE LOWER MI

CLUSTER PERSISTS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN

SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 32025.





...THOMPSON

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