

175 

WWUS20 KWNS 160015

SEL8

SPC WW 160015

COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 398

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

715 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHEAST COLORADO

       NORTHWEST KANSAS

       SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF GOODLAND

KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 395...WW 396...WW 397...



DISCUSSION...ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF

LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE IN NORTHEAST CO. AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THIS

CONVECTION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHOULD FUEL ONGOING

DEVELOPMENT AND PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DEVELOPMENT. MASS

TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL

LLJ AND SUBSEQUENT WARM AIR ADVECTION RESULTS IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT

ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A BELT OF MODEST MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF

25-30KT...BASED ON  REGIONAL VWPS...WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT

EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY

OF A SMALL MCS EVOLVING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS NWRN KS/SWRN NEB

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE THE

PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27020.





...CARBIN

