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WWUS20 KWNS 291900

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SPC WW 291900

GAZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-300100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 538

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

255 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA

       SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL 900

PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST

OF VIDALIA GEORGIA TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH

CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND FROM

S CNTRL GA ENE TO CSTL SC.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FORMING

WHERE AN AXIS OF STEEPENING LOW LVL LAPSE RATES COINCIDES WITH A

PLUME OF MID LVL MOISTURE IN BASE OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE.  WITH

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF MICROBURSTS...AND WITH STORMS

LIKELY TO FURTHER ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER-SCALE CLUSTER OR

TWO...EXPECTED CONCENTRATION OF MICROBURST RISK OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS APPEARS TO JUSTIFY A WW.  THE STORMS/CLUSTERS SHOULD

MOVE GENERALLY E...WITH A DIMINISHING RISK FOR SVR WIND AS THE

STORMS ENCOUNTER/MERGE WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATER THIS AFTN OR

EVE.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.

A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION

VECTOR 25015.





...CORFIDI

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