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WWUS20 KWNS 272051

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 498

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

455 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN

  LAKE ERIE



* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 455 PM UNTIL

  1000 PM EDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF

ROBEN HOOD MICHIGAN TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...DEVELOPING STORMS IN CENTRAL LOWER MI SHOULD INTENSIFY

THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOVING SEWD/SSEWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS

BEEN DESTABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION.  THE

COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A

RISK FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/BOW STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL TO

PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 34035.





...THOMPSON

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