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206 

WWUS20 KWNS 122014

SEL8

SPC WW 122014

FLZ000-CWZ000-130400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

305 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA

  COASTAL WATERS



* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM

  UNTIL 1100 PM EST.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST OF

NAPLES FLORIDA TO 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO FLORIDA.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...LEAD SQLN NOW OVER THE FAR ERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE E IN WRN FL THIS EVE AT 30-35 KTS. DIURNAL

DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN/DISSIPATION OF

OLD S FL FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL BUOYANCY

OVER WRN FL TO POSE A RISK FOR DMGG WIND INTO TNGT GIVEN /1/

EXPECTATION OF STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR /ASSOCIATED WITH SE QUADRANT

OF AMPLIFYING LWR MS VLY UPR TROUGH/ AND /2/ EXISTING ORGANIZED

NATURE OF CONVECTION. DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADO THREATS WOULD BE

GREATEST WITH EMBEDDED LEWP AND BOW STRUCTURES.

FARTHER E...A SEPARATE SVR RISK MAY ARISE A BIT LATER THIS AFTN OR

THIS EVE NEAR THE FL E CST...WHERE LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE

AS LOW-LVL WINDS SOMEWHAT VEER WITH THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF

UPR TROUGH. THE MORE DISCRETE NATURE OF ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS

REGION...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM THE SE FL

CST...SUGGEST THAT A SOMEWHAT GREATER CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK MAY

DEVELOP IN THIS AREA RELATIVE TO POINTS W. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT

THAT THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL BE GREATER THAN NOW

EXPECTED...PARTS OF WW 8 MAY BE UPGRADED TO TORNADO LATER TODAY.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.

A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION

VECTOR 25035.





...CORFIDI

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