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000 

WWUS20 KWNS 181840

SEL9

SPC WW 181840

WIZ000-LMZ000-190200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 529

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

140 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       EASTERN WISCONSIN

       LAKE MICHIGAN



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF

GREEN BAY WISCONSIN TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSHKOSH WISCONSIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN

COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH

SPREADS SEWD FROM NRN MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR

MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT

IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT/SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY

SEWD WITH SOME CELLS POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAKE BREEZE OVER THE

NEXT FEW HOURS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 31020.





...CARBIN/WEISS

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