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000 

WWUS20 KWNS 012151

SEL9

SPC WW 012151

MNZ000-NDZ000-020400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 649

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

450 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2008



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

       FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 450 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF GRAND

FORKS NORTH DAKOTA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF INTERNATIONAL

FALLS MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 648...



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NWRN MN

/WITH WRN DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO FAR ERN ND/ THIS EVENING AHEAD

OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD OUT OF CANADA.  AIR MASS

WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SHEAR/LIFT INCREASING ALONG

STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ AFTER DARK.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40 KT WILL

SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE

HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS ACTIVITY

EVOLVES INTO A SEWD MOVING MCS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 31025.





...EVANS

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