

541 

WWUS20 KWNS 151536

SEL9

SPC WW 151536

ARZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-152300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 419

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1035 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

       PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

       PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY

       PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI

       MUCH OF WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1035 AM UNTIL 600

PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES S OF AREA OF

ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS ERN MO INTO LWR OH VALLEY.  CONTINUED HEATING

WILL INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY

ACROSS NRN PORTION OF WATCH AREA. WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG AND

30-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE

LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.

THERE IS A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES...HOWEVER WIND/HAIL SHOULD BE

MAIN CONCERN.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28025.





...HALES

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