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WWUS20 KWNS 161609

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CTZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-170100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 619

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1205 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT

       WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

       NEW HAMPSHIRE

       NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY

       EASTERN NEW YORK

       EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

       VERMONT



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL

900 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH OF

HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF NEWPORT

VERMONT.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 618. WATCH NUMBER 618 WILL NOT

BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1205 PM EDT.



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT AS REGION IS GLANCED BY

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER

GREAT LAKES.  WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING

THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUD BREAKS COUPLED WITH THE

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR

MASS LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS

NRN NEW ENGLAND TO 1500-2500 J/KG INTO THE LOWER HUDSON AND DE RIVER

VALLEYS.  THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD

ATTENDANT TO ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN

ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING

STRUCTURES AND PERHAPS SUPERCELLS.  WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS

POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE

WEATHER HAZARD.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27030.





...MEAD

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